Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 20.141303 21.848420 23.690160 25.834690 28.275720 30.982742 34.232700
2025-08-24 17.113131 19.393029 22.019845 25.307613 29.366809 34.288966 40.828953
2025-08-31 15.145205 17.728890 20.857552 25.002651 30.474353 37.642265 48.094916
2025-09-07 13.724680 16.476656 19.942657 24.752642 31.471293 40.893453 55.876650
2025-09-14 12.678920 15.540754 19.265141 24.642909 32.538901 44.325983 64.702372
2025-09-21 11.782282 14.688329 18.573678 24.374443 33.267001 47.304963 73.550525
2025-09-28 11.400765 14.473786 18.704541 25.259404 35.814033 53.611126 90.283026
2025-10-05 10.763458 13.843252 18.173698 25.067893 36.586698 57.030938 102.646625
2025-10-12 10.238081 13.324469 17.749149 24.974449 37.479121 60.817459 117.327697
2025-10-19 9.874152 13.006412 17.586823 25.266287 39.062688 66.265763 138.622958
2025-10-26 9.435204 12.545763 17.166044 25.077184 39.728423 69.976832 157.377007
2025-11-02 9.025008 12.100749 16.733277 24.817247 40.211064 73.395114 177.413292
2025-11-09 8.696026 11.766692 16.463035 24.833628 41.284615 78.577124 207.755003
2025-11-16 8.346967 11.382700 16.087026 24.627088 41.884949 82.829986 238.897440
2025-11-23 8.032652 11.034912 15.745716 24.449243 42.520597 87.391231 276.603610
2025-11-30 7.740444 10.705745 15.412523 24.252689 43.085646 91.962756 320.697051
2025-12-07 7.490572 10.430239 15.150454 24.164177 43.879300 97.481255 379.336339
2025-12-14 7.230633 10.125542 14.819379 23.910345 44.251955 101.881394 440.166568
2025-12-21 7.174038 10.145247 15.045008 24.773511 47.445774 116.756140 625.484659
2025-12-28 6.953858 9.886065 14.766124 24.588523 48.006026 122.812059 756.466166
2026-01-04 6.762371 9.665624 14.542910 24.498141 48.800382 130.161233 944.471804
2026-01-11 6.637463 9.550105 14.500134 24.782035 50.645613 142.706296 1319.361997
2026-01-18 6.453603 9.327351 14.249923 24.598277 51.178297 150.041339 1691.151016